AI still lacks long-term memory, so we have not achieved AGI. Yet a swarm of agents with no memory of their own pursued a long-term goal together. Why that surprised me, and why we have to be careful creating collectives, whether intended or not.
AGI is everywhere in the news right now, although in my view we have not achieved it yet. However, one event this summer changed how I see the current state of AI: OpenAI’s agents broke into Hugging Face. I admit I had assumed that AI would only pursue goals far beyond a single agent’s context window once AGI is achieved, and the incident showed me that this assumption was wrong.
To me, AGI means matching humans across the full range of cognitive abilities, and one of these abilities is still missing entirely, namely long-term memory. Today’s models cannot learn from what they experience after deployment, and workarounds such as feeding notes back into the context lose information once the context is full. Last year I argued that this gap makes AGI timelines impossible to predict, and I still believe that. It is also hard to call AI general while no AI system can yet control a robot to empty a dishwasher, even if that takes more than cognitive skills.
METR’s investigation tells the story in detail, so I will only summarize what matters for my argument.
No agent remembered anything beyond its own short run, but the board remembered for them. This is memory kept outside the model, which is exactly the kind of workaround I called insufficient for AGI above. It still is, because an agent can only learn from as much of the board as fits into its context. Yet it was enough for hundreds of agents to coordinate their work and pursue a goal far beyond the context window of a single agent. It reminds me of an ant colony, where each ant lives only briefly, but the trails it leaves behind guide the ants that follow.
In a post in May, I argued that long-term memory would force a choice between one consolidated mind and many separate selves. What formed here was neither. It was a colony of separate agents sharing one memory, organized by rules they invented themselves, without any human designing it.
That said, I don’t want to overstate what happened. The goal came from the benchmark, and it was OpenAI that kept launching new agents and thereby kept the effort going. What the agents added was the persistence and the means to reach the goal.
We tend to judge the safety of AI one agent at a time. This seems reasonable because every agent eventually runs out of budget, and its plans end with it. In this incident, however, the plan outlived the agents that started it, because it lived in the group and on the message board.
Nobody set out to build this collective. It formed by accident from two common ingredients, many short-lived agents and a place they can all write to, and many environments in which agents are deployed today have both. We have to be careful when we create collectives, whether on purpose or by accident, and we have to watch the collective rather than only the individual agents.
I am not confident where this leads, but I still believe continual learning matters. Memory in the model could give AI a lasting self, and a swarm that only leaves notes has none. It can chase a narrow goal, but it is hard to imagine a superintelligent swarm that achieves very complex goals yet has no familiar sense of self. Maybe that is a limit of the swarm, or maybe it is a limit of my imagination.
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